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The Mets have won 11 of their past 12 games. Now the real fun begins writes New York Post columnist, George Willis.
From a betting perspective events have definitely become a lot more exciting around the Mets. Their odds of winning the National League have almost halved since I recommended the bet the day they acquired Marcus Stroman and now sit at 30/1.
Today, I purpose a wager I feel is a much better bet. Mets +220 to make the playoffs. Their two wins over the Marlins yesterday have accelerated their chances more than the sports betting market has thus far accounted for.
Market Not Adjusting Enough After Yesterday’s 2-Game Sweep
According to Braulio Perez, staff writer for FanDuel, the Mets had a 28.6% to make the playoffs as off yesterday, and were listed at +240 on FanDuel. So if we bet $100 and won we would return $340. Therefore we would need at least a (100/340) or 29.4% chance to win our bet for the wager to be profitable.
It is the ideal scenario for the sportsbook is for the actual odds to be just 1-2% worse than the odds needed to make a profitable bet. It’s close enough to be negligible to the average bettor.
The Mets obviously improved their playoff chances with a 2-0 sweep over the Marlins yesterday. However the FanGraph odds adjusted after the wins significantly more than the FanDuel Odds.
08/05 FanGraphs Odds: 28.6%, FanDuel Odds: +240 (29.4% chance needed to break even).+0.6% house edge.
08/06 FanGraph Odds: 32.7%, Fan Duel Odds: +220 (31.3% chance needed to break even) -1.4% house edge, +1.4% player edge!
Robinson Cano suffered a torn hamstring in Sunday’s victory over the Pirates and may be done for the season. However given his exorbitant contract and poor play of late this is almost a net neutral for the team. Of course, the Ewing Theory applies.
Even FanGraphs Might Not Being Giving NYM Enough Credit
It’s one thing to detect a variation between a trusted algorithm’s odds and a sportsbooks listed odds – it’s another thing to access whether the algorithms determination is correct. I would argue that if anything the Mets are undervalued by Fangraphs calculation for the following reasons.
1. The computer recognizes that New York added Marcus Stroman, but they are basing their assessments of Toronto, Marcus Stroman. We have seen time and time again, a pitcher enjoy a surge in performance when going from a non-contender to a contender mid-season. These men are competitors are heart. They thrive for stakes. We saw it with CC Sabathia when he went first to Milwaukee and then to the Yankees. We saw it with Justin Verlander when he went from the last place Tigers to the first place Astros. We’ve even already seen a glimpse of that added competitive fire from Marcus Stroman himself, who made one of the fielding plays of the year last week in a win against the Pirates
2. The computer does not account for the fact that Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard are big-game tested. Like Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, this tandem have been kept icy cool in big playoff games. Each sport a post-season ERA less than 2.8 in 9 combined starts. If we get to a September where every game matters, the Mets manager can choose from one of the elite pitchers in the game on any given day. If there is a play-in game, the Mets could be a -200 favorite if they can throw out a rested deGrom.
If the analytics are 100% correct, we have a solid bet at Mets +220, with over a 1% edge over the book. If the algorithms at FanGraphs are slightly underrating the Mets – as I think they are – we have an excellent bet here.