Right now on FanDuel Sportsbook you can bet which state the 2020 NFL Champion will hail from.
Of the 6 states given odds, the shortest odds are California at +430, with the Chargers and Rams both considered legitimate contenders, and the 49ers and Raiders lurking. Maybe lurking a little farther back for the Raiders.
Florida and New York state have the longest odds at 21/1.
New York’s Chances
New York state has three teams that are heavy underdogs to make the playoffs or win their division: the Jets, the Bills & the Giants. Of course any 21/1 to shot is unlikely, but let’s peal back the curtain here and see if the odds are correctly correlated to each of these teams individual odds.
To break even on a 21/1 shot, a player needs to expect to win the bet at least 4.8% of the time.
The Bills & Giants both have 80/1 odds to win the SB on Fan Duel. That’s about a 1.25% theoretical odds – slightly less in practice due to the implicit vig taken by the sportsbook. Let’s call it 1% true odds.
The Jets have 60/1 odds to win the SB on FanDuel. That’s about a 1.67% theoretically odds, again if we ignore the implicit vig. Let’s call it 1.5% true odds.
1+1+1.5 = 3.5%. And if we ignore the vig: 1.25+1.2+1.67 = 4.12%.
FanDuel is telling us that combined these teams combined have AT BEST a 4.12% to win the Super Bowl. Yet because they know some players will blindly bet with their home state, they give odds that would only be fair if the Bills, Jets and Giants had around a 5% to win it all. A player would be much better off betting each of these teams individually. The convenience of having one bet doesn’t come close to making up for the corresponding loss in value.
The Field Bet Looks Best
I like the “Any Other State” bet at -160. The majority of betters will be from one of the listed 6 states (California, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas, Florida & New York), so I feel like just picking the field bet is a bet against public bias. With the “Any Other State” bet, I get the Patriots (the current SB favorite at 7/1) along with the Chiefs, Saints, Colts, Bears & Packers.
Patriots – 7/1 – 14.2% theoretical odds
Chiefs – 8/1 – 12.8% theoretical odds
Saints – 9/1 – 11.1% theoretical odds
Colts – 15/1 – 6.7% theoretical odds
Bears – 19/1 – 5.2% theoretical odds
Packers – 19/1 – 5.2% theoretical odds
Combined these teams have about a 55% theoretical chance to win the Super Bowl, which we can reduce to about 45% when we consider the vigorish.
Additionally we have 8 more teams that are not favorites on our ticket.
Vikings – 30/1 – 3.33% theoretical odds
Seahawks – 30/1 – 3.33% theoretical odds
Falcons – 32/1 – 3.13% theoretical odds
Ravens – 36/1 – 2.78% theoretical odds
Panthers – 50/1 – 2% theoretical odds
Lions – 80/1 – 1.05% theoretical odds
Redskins – 100/1 – 1% theoretical odds
Cardinals – 110/1 – 0.9% theoretical odds
While currently long shots, the beautiful thing about the NFL is how quickly things can change. Two of these teams have SB winning coaches. Vikings coach, Mike Zimmer currently boasts the best ATS record of any HC in the NFL.
All totaled the “Any Other State” bet has about a 72% theoretical chance to win if the Futures odds were correct. Of course, we know that the futures are necessarily incorrect so that the Books can make money. But given that we only need to hit 61% of our -160 bets to make a profit, it feels like we have a much bigger possibility of an advantage over the book than we would if we picked any particular state.
Angle: My Best Bet is “Any Other State” to win the Superbowl at -160.