NY Daily Betting Odds Report – 7/31/19: Mets Prospects on Trade Deadline Day

ny daily odds report 14

Mets Active in the Trade Market

Don’t accuse (current) Mets Ace Noah Syndergaard of taking himself too seriously.

As the trade deadline approached, “Thor” changed his twitter bio to this on July 28th:

“Pitcher for the New York Mets, for now. Mrs. Met would hate to see me traded.”

Around that time some online shops put up odds that heavily favored the Mets to trade Syndergaard before today’s 4 PM ET trade deadline. Yesterday, the Mets let media members know they were pulling Syndergaard off the trade market.

Of course this doesn’t mean a trade isn’t possible over the next few hours of the trading window. GMs like Daryl Morey of the Houston Rockets have said things like “We will not trade Chris Paul” mere hours before trading Chris Paul. The Mets undoubtedly would answer the phone if someone wanted to blow their doors off.

Whether or not they trade Syndergaard, the Mets hope only to improve overall as they head toward a pivotal 2020 for the organization.

An executive of a team in the market for Syndergaard summarized the Mets plans like this: “They are not rebuilding with or without Syndergaard. The Mets only do this if they think it is a way to be more competitive next year by getting more depth or more prospect collateral. This would not be a pure prospect trade.”

As their trade for Marcus Stroman confirmed, the Mets only want to get better.

We must assume any potential trade of other Mets assets such as Zach Wheeler or Edwin Diaz will also seek to be a net positive, at least for 2020 if not on Day 1.

Still Clinging to Playoffs Hopes in 2019

Given that, let’s take a look at the Mets chance this season to sneak into the playoffs this season, and possibly be a serious contender next season. With or without their tallest pitcher.

Currently 11 games out of the NL East, the Mets can only realistically hope to challenge for the Wild Card race this season, in which they are 5 games back.

Fangraphs places the Mets chances of a post-season birth at 16.5% or about 6/1. That is marked increased from just 3.9% one week ago before their impressive 5 game win streak.

Unlike the AL – where you have the defending champion. Boston Red Sox and perennial-contender. Cleveland Indians vying for playoff births – the NL seems wide open. Both the Nationals and the Phillies have looked adrift at times this season. And both have looked great at times as well. The NL Central teams keep beating up on each other, dragging each down. The NL West doesn’t have a second team that looks like a serious threat.

Odds to Win it All

The Mets are currently 100/1 to win the 2019 World Series. These don’t seem like good odds. If we accept the Fangraphs odds that they make the playoffs 16.5% of the time – that means they would have to win the World Series 1 out of every 16 times they make the playoffs in order for 100/1 to represent fair value.  There would be 9 other teams in the competition, four of which – Yankees, Twins, Astros & Dodgers – that look head & shoulders above the competition – and 6 of which that do not have to face a wild card game. I think fair odds for the Mets to win the World Series if they made the playoffs would be more like 1/25. That would make a fair future number for the Mets more in the 150/1 range.

Angle: If you just love this Mets and want get on the deGrom/Syndergaard/Stroman ride as quickly as possible – I would look for the Mets to win the NL at 50/1.   (Odds available at FanDuel.) Considering how much stronger than AL has been this season the NL – chopping their future odds in half just to win the pennant is a good deal for the bettor.

It will be exciting to see where the Mets land in the future pool for 2020. They will enter the year with arguably the best starting pitching rotation in the MLB .  Phenom, Pete Alonso, as well, is only getting better.  I’d expect the Mets to land in the 15/1 range to win it all in 2020. Or maybe even better by the time their through dealing.