New York Jets +2.5 @ Washington Redskins
New York Jets: 18.5 Points, +118 ML, Washington Redskins: 20.0 Points, -136 ML
We have a battle here of two terrible teams that expected to be good.
The Jets tanked the entire Todd Bowles moment in order to have enough talent to give their next coach a fighting chance. And they think they have their guy – despite their rough start. This week they made clear: there will be no coaching changes during or after the season.
Relieved of the anxiety of losing his job, Adam Gase will strive to continue the upward trend his team has displayed on offense with Sam Darnold. The Jets offense hasn’t been great. But if we only look at their numbers when Luke Falk was not their quarterback, they appear much closer to the middle of the pack on that side of the ball than their season-long numbers would suggest.
Defensively, they have been average throughout. The Jets currently rank 11th in Defense according to Football Outsiders DVOA metric.
Washington, too, did not anticipate a poor season coming into the year. However, with Jay Gruden’s dysfunction transitioning into his dismissal, alongside Trent Williams’ hold out, creating an above-average offense was always going to be an uphill challenge for the DC Football Team. Now that they pivoted toa struggling rookie QB, any offensive production from them at this point would be a pleasant surprise.
Vote of Confidence Bowl
While the Jets will retain their staff, Washington has no sense of what the future holds. Many around the team anticipate Offensive Coordinator Kevin O’Connell to have a chance at landing the Top Job. Practically no one expects Bill Callahan to remain the Head Coach after the season.
One could argue that Washington will work harder to earn their positions, while the Jets staff may be complacent. I think that’s the wrong way to look at it hear, however. Coaching cannot be done in a vacuum. No matter how hard you work, or how much you want it – the task of the job requires commitment and connection with your players. I don’t think anyone in Landover is on the same page right now. Coaches have taken exception to management decisions. Players have voiced support for current and former teammates, in the face of criticism of those same players from the franchise.
Angle: Take the Jets +118 to win the game. Dwyane Haskins has not magically become NFL ready over the course of the Bye Week. While either of these terrible teams can win – I think there is a better chance that the Jets team will come out with a better effort. Moreover, I don’t think Washington has a home-field advantage at the moment. Literally, I think it’s worth 0 points and the numbers back it up.
Since 2014, Washington has 1-point better scoring differential at home than on the road. For much of that time, this team was in playoff contention. Now they are a matter of factly not. In 2019, Washington is 0-4 and has been outscored by 15 points per game at home. On the road, they have only lost by 10 points per.