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New England Patriots (2-0) vs. New York Jets (0-2)
NWE 33.25 Points, -3255 ML, NYJ: 11.75 Points +1750 ML
The New York Jets not only lost their 5th straight home Monday Night Football vs. the Browns last night, but they also lost their second straight starting quarterback. Tough to be a fan of the Green & White on a night like that. But as Homer Simpson once quoted, “When there is nothing else to believe in, believe in hope.” In other words, there’s nowhere to go for these Jets than straight up like a rocket.
Betting Market Counts Out Teams Too Early
Everyone says not to overreact to early-season results, but its seemingly too hard for sports bettors to resist. The apprehension against backing losers inherently creates value on seemingly down and out teams. Teams that lost against the spread in the first two weeks of the season are 16-5 ATS in Week 3 over the past three years. Over the past five years, teams are hitting at a 67% ATS clip in that scenario.
The Jets could not have looked worse offensively last night, which is exactly why I like them to surpass expectations against a great Patriots defense.
True, The Pats have allowed a league-low 4 yards per play and 1.5 points per game over the first two weeks. However, those results came against a historically bad Dolphins team and a Steelers team that in hindsight had a compromised quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger. I’m not quite ready to declare these Pats are the 85′ Bears.
Luke Faulk had 0 reps with the Jets starters prior to coming in off the bench yesterday. Even without that experience, he still posted a decent 7.9 yards per attempt in the game. With a week of experience under his belt, Faulk and the Jets could easily surpass the meager 11 points Vegas expects them to score on Sunday.
At Washington State Faulk racked up over twenty 300+ yard games. Only 5 CFB quarterbacks had more passing yards than Faulk during his senior season in 2017. Much like fellow Washington State alumnus Gardner Mischnew II for the Jaguars, Faulk has the timing and precision to execute a game plan and move the ball against an NFL defense – even if he doesn’t have the arm strength to scare anyone long term.
The Patriots defense may prove to be the best in the league. But they are not invincible. The Pats have allowed 20 points in 4 of their last 8 home games. If the Jets can muster two touchdowns, that will require the Patriots to score 37 points to cover this spread. The Patriots put up 43 points against the Dolphins largely because of two second-half defensive touchdowns.
The Jets defense may have Quinnen Williams and CJ Mosley back for this game. CJ Mosley & Co. had held a solid Bills offense scoreless through 45 minutes in Week 1 before Mosley left due to injury.
History On Their Side
Teams laying 20+ points have pratically zero track record of covering in the NFL. Teams laying 20+ are 0-9 ATS since 1992. No NFL team has ever covered a spread of greater than 21 points: 0-5 all-time.
These are professional football teams. Every organization gets $700+ million apiece in TV money. Those writing checks like that don’t take kindly to non-competitive football. Expect for the Jets to bounce back, or fear for Adam Gase’s employment. Or both.
Angle: Take Jets +22.5. Odds available at FanDuel.