The NFL season is less than a week away and we continue to give you Week 1 plays and futures bets for the upcoming 2019 NFL season. Both the Jets and Giants look to improve upon a rocky 2018 season and make a push for the playoffs. Every day at NY Betting News, we will break down and analyze at least one NFL play for the upcoming week or season. Every Friday starting next week, I will give you my three best plays for that week’s slate of games, including a New York team, and Sunday mornings I will provide the best prop bets for the day. Using odds from FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook, here are my suggested bets for the upcoming season:
Offensive Rookie of the Year: David Montgomery +1200
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: Montgomery OROY +1200
DraftKings Sportsbook Odds: Montgomery OROY +1200
A third round pick out of Iowa State, David Montgomery comes in with good value for the offensive rookie of the year award in 2019 at 12-1. The concern with Montgomery is he will be overshadowed by Tarik Cohen, but I think it will be the other way around. Matt Nagy isn’t afraid to go with the guy he wants, as evidenced last year by Jordan Howard being shoved aside many times in favor of Cohen. If you’ve read the press clippings on Montgomery in training camp, the Bears coaches are in love with him. He has has earned nothing but top praise from those who have seen what he’s been able to do throughout the preseason practices.
At Iowa State, Montgomery totaled just under 3,000 yards rushing on the ground, mostly all in his last two seasons there. He also posed a threat as a receiver, catching 71 passes. He’s been compared to Kareem Hunt with his playmaking ability, and while slightly slower than Hunt, he brings more power and can bounce off tackles to extend plays. NFL Network’s Peter Schrager earlier this month said Montgomery could be a top-5 fantasy football back. There are other rookies that will rival Montgomery. Josh Jacobs is the most likely candidate, but I don’t trust picking an Oakland Raider especially in an offense that will likely be throwing a lot more than running. T.J. Hockenson will be solid his rookie season, but will be a better player down the road. Kyler Murray will have some growing pains with Arizona as he tries to adapt from the Big 12 into the NFL and his value is way too low. I like the value on Montgomery at 12-1, especially playing on a team with a solid offensive line and winning team.
To Win the AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs -157
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: AFC West champ Chiefs -150
DraftKings Sportsbook Odds: AFC West Champ Chiefs -157
A year ago, the Kansas City Chiefs ended up with the AFC’s best record at 12-4 as Patrick Mahomes went on to win the NFL Offensive Player of the Year. As 2019 approaches, there’s no reason whatsoever to think the Chiefs won’t repeat that success. The Broncos and Raiders are not viable options to contend with the Chiefs in the AFC West. The Chargers are seen as the only real threat to rival the Chiefs in the division, but the Chargers give me reason to worry. First, Defensive Rookie of the Year Derwin James tore his ACL and is out for the year, a major setback for the defense. Next, Melvin Gordon II has been holding out and there’s uncertainty if he will be back for the start of the season. There’s also questions whether Phillip Rivers can continue his play at a high level as he approaches 38 years old.
There are no distractions from the Chiefs. Mahomes figures to only improve upon his second season in the NFL and the drafting of Mecole Hardman in the third round and Darwin Thompson in the fifth round will make an already speedy offense even faster with Tyreek Hill, Hardman and Thompson joining the talent of Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins and Mahomes on offense. The -157 odds of winning the AFC West on DK are not as high as I thought they’d be and they’re low enough to pull the trigger for me. I’ll take the Chiefs to win the AFC West.