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There is no MLB hangover from the fourth as we have 13 games on tap. Over the last few weeks there have been quite a few pitching changes throughout the day that could lead to no action. The Angels, Mariners, and Blue Jays have been swapping around starting pitching. Early odds may suggest another pitcher, so that is just something to note. Either way we don’t have any games that are in immediate danger of being PPD. We also have the Mets at home against the Phillies and the Yankees visiting the Rays.
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays
DraftKings Sportsbook: NYY -120
FanDuel Sportsbook: NYY -112
The Yankees will head into Tampa Bay for a three game series against the Rays as both teams are 1-2 in the AL East. Masahiro Tanaka is coming off a start where he couldn’t get out of the first inning. This was the London game against Boston, and after hearing how the spin rates were affected by the stadium design, it makes sense why we saw an all-time high in runs. I am throwing that start out. Instead I am looking at Tanaka’s recent stretch. You have to go back to May 1st for when he did not go at least six innings. This is the fourth time Tanaka will face Tampa. The first three times he has allowed a combined one earned run. His strikeout tally is 23.
Brendan McKay is making his second big league start for the Rays, and pitched well in his debit. The former fourth overall pick back in 2017 has a bright future ahead of him, however I am not as trusting in him tonight. The Yankees are 13-9 against left-handed pitching on the season, and are 15-2 in their last 17 games SU. New York has won seven of their last ten games on the road against Tampa Bay. The Yanks continue to dominate the AL while the Rays are playing more middling baseball of late going 5-5 in their last ten games.
Minnesota Twins Over 5.5 Team Total
DK Sportsbook: -109
FD Sportsbook: -112
During the summer, Target Field becomes a much friendlier hitters park. The Twins are big home favorites at -172 and they have an implied total of 5.8 runs. Taking the over on Minnesota’s team total has been profitable this season, mainly because this team is averaging 5.7 runs per game on the year. Adrian Sampson is on the hill for the Rangers tonight, and he has a 6.47 ERA on the road this season compared to 2.86 at home. Sampson’s xFIP is 4.85, which is the bottom 20 in qualified starters. Even after Sampson is bounced, the Twins will face a bullpen that ranks 19th in ERA. This is a great spot for the Twins offense, who have also averaged over five runs per game at home.
Oakland Athletics (-1.5) @ Seattle Mariners
DK Sportsbook: +104
FD Sportsbook: -102
You might have blinked and missed that the Oakland A’s are now eight games over .500 and one game out of the wild card race. They also have a better x-W/L. The offense is fully healthy and this rotation continues to get the job done despite not having any bigger names. The A’s have been road warriors of late, winning seven of the last eight. Seattle is 1-6 in their last seven games. We have two lefties on the hill tonight, as Brett Anderson will square off against Yusei Kikuchi. Both teams are on the opposite side of the spectrum against southpaws this season. Oakland come into tonight with a 16-7 record while Seattle are 8-17. Oakland ranks 3rd in wRC+ (122) as a team against lefties and 2nd in team ISO (.223).
In the month of June, Kikuchi had a 7.03 ERA and allowed seven home runs. He has also been slightly worse at home, and Safeco isn’t playing as large compared to prior seasons. Oakland is 25-17 ATS this season on the road, and 47-41 in general.