Table of Contents
The Yankees were crushed again, and Mookie Betts alone caused the Yanks to lose in the first five innings. Other than that, the Braves picked up a road win and the Rays covered the spread moving us to 18-12. The Yankees are on the early scheduled games, but the Mets take on the Pirates again at home. Always breaking down evening games, we will dive into a few picks that standout.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: NYM -136
DraftKings Sportsbook Odds: NYM -137
The Mets are in a good home spot against the Pirates. Steven Matz is on the bump, where we have seen him carry severe home-road splits this season. He has allowed a 2.54 ERA, 3 HR, and a .296 wOBA at Citi Field. Away from home, he has over a six ERA, and has allowed 16 HR. Pittsburgh ranks dead last in wRC+ against left-handed pitching as a team, and have a .281 ISO. The team is also striking out 23.2% of the time against southpaws. Matz has a strikeout prop of 4.5, which I am taking the over on as well. On the other side of this game, Trevor Williams isn’t in a good spot. Lefties have tagged him for a .391 wOBA and .200 ISO this season. The Mets will bring four strong ones to the table, and then you have Pete Alonso in the middle. A lot of names match up well with this fastball range, and he throws it over 50% of the time to both sides of the plate. I like the Mets with a decent moneyline tonight.
Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds Over 10.5
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: -108
DraftKings Sportsbook Odds: -108
Chi Chi Gonzalez is in Great American Ballpark tonight, and the Reds have a six implied total. On the other side, Anthony DeSclafani is on the hill. Colorado has a pedestrian 4.6 implied total, but I like the odds of this one hitting the over. DeSclafani has struggled with lefties, allowing a .402 wOBA and .277 ISO. Names like Blackmon, Dahl, and Murphy standout as guys who can rack up some offense. Gonzalez has pitched just three starts and was recalled for today’s start. He has over a 5.00 ERA this season and a 4.63 ERA in his career. Gonzalez was on the way out, however he has found his way back. While the under has not been profitable in Cincinnati, the over is 7-1 in the last eight against Colorado in Great American Ballpark.
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers Over 9.5
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: -108
DraftKings Sportsbook Odds: -117
Jon Lester is another name that has struggled on the road this season. He has a 5.09 ERA compared to a 2.95 ERA at Wrigley. His second half has not gone great, sporting a 4.97 ERA. He has been up and down all year, as we saw last season his stuff has diminished. Chase Anderson is another blowup candidate and regression is coming for him. He has a 4.81 xFIP and 3.90 ERA this season. He is not as good against lefties as advertised, and the .198 BABIP has helped. Right-handers have crushed Anderson and I expect the Cubs offense to get after him tonight. Ten runs combined with the starting arms and some rocky bullpen pitching of late should be there.