Table of Contents
Looking back at last night, the Mets-Padres fell short of the over, and the Braves lost at home. The hit was in Milwaukee, as the Reds mashed the Brewers to hit the over. While it was a 1-2 night, we move to 14-7. Looking at the evening games, there are eight of them with some stronger pitching options in good spots. We will take a look at a strong strikeout player prop, followed by a Pirates pick’em, and Mets spread.
Shane Bieber Over 7.5 Strikeouts
FanDuel Sportsbook: +100
DraftKings Sportsbook: +100
Shane Bieber has brought some of the best strikeout stuff to the table this season. He has a 31.1% strikeout rate on the season, and going back to last season it sits at 27.8%. Bieber has a 48% whiff rate on his slider, and a 50% whiff rate on his curveball. Bieber takes on a Blue Jays offense that has a lot of high strikeout bats. The projected lineup has a 22.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Seven of the nine projected hitters have over a 20% strikeout rate. Only four bats have over a 70% contact rate against sliders and curveballs. Bieber faced Toronto earlier this season, tossing nine strikeouts in six innings. He has 34 strikeouts over his last four starts, and ranks 9th in strikeouts this season. Against a strikeout prone Jays team, I love the odds of him hitting eight k’s.
San Diego Padres @ New York Mets -1.5
FD Sportsbook: +130
DK Sportsbook: +133
Hopefully Robinson Cano saved some power for tonight, coming off of a three home run game. New York will roll out Noah Syndergaard and he will take on a heavy right-handed lineup. The Padres project to bring just one lefty to the plate tonight, which isn’t a big deal anyway. Syndergaard doesn’t have any sort of severe splits, but he does have a 26% strikeout rate and 55% groundball rate against right-handed hitters this season. The Padres starting lineup has a 25.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Thor is coming off back to back strong starts, generating 17 strikeouts. On the other side, Dinelson Lamet has struggled a bit coming back from injury. The strikeouts have been there, but six walks in 14 innings isn’t great. He has also allowed eight earned runs and four home runs. Lamet will come around eventually, but at the moment offenses are getting to him. New York has won six of their last ten at home vs. San Diego, and have been a better home team this season. They are 24-19 compared to 22-35 on the road. New York also comes in 8-2 ATS over the last ten games.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
FD Sportsbook: PIT -108
DK Sportsbook: PIT -107
The teams have split the first two games, and both have been one run games. Both arms going tonight struggle against left-handed hitters, but only one team can roll out a lot of lefties, and that is Pittsburgh. Adam Wainwright has struggled against Pittsburgh, allowing nine earned runs in his last three starts. He had two starts not making it past the fifth inning. Both teams come in equal in trends, and production of late. Pittsburgh is 4-6 in the last ten games against St. Louis, also not pointing to any real advantage. This one solely is on the pitching matchups, and the Pirates matchup very well here.