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It was a solid night and a good rebound from the prior article. The Twins-Yankees hit the over at +100, while the Marlins-WhiteSox also hit the over. The Diamondbacks covered the spread, bringing us to a 3-0 night, and 13-5 on the year. As far as weather goes tonight, there are some spotty showers on the east coast that shouldn’t threaten any games. Both New York teams are in play tonight, as the Mets take on the Padres back at home. The Yankees are coming off a loss to the Twins last night.
San Diego Padres @ New York Mets Over 8.5
FanDuel Sportsbook: +100
DraftKings Sportsbook: -105
Hard to pick on Chris Paddack right now, who has allowed four earned runs in his last four starts total. He has already dominated this Mets team once, and an over has casually been set at 8.5. You have Jason Vargas on the other side, who currently has an xFIP over five and an ERA over four. Vargas doesn’t offer up much strikeout potential, and finds himself against a loaded Padres lineup from the right side. This projected Padres lineup has a .417 wOBA and .292 ISO off southpaws combined this season. The over is 6-4 in the last ten meetings at Citi Field between these two teams. The same record holds over the last ten meetings in general. The over is 22-17-3 at home for the Mets this season, and mainly we see decreased totals because of the ballpark and pitching selections. The over has been excellent for Mets games this season, sitting at 52-38-9 overall.
Kansas City Royals @ Atlanta Braves -1.5
FD Sportsbook: -116
DK Sportsbook: -112
We have a lot of inter-league play going on, and it doesn’t give us much relevant historical noise either. These are just two teams in totally opposite directions. The Braves just won their 60th game, and have been cruising of late. They haven’t been great ATS this season, but are 7-3 ATS over the last ten games. They are also 4-2 ATS when facing AL teams this season. Atlanta is strong against left-handed pitching going 15-7 where the Royals are not going 10-17. Dallas Keuchel is on the mound facing a Royals team that ranks 26th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Danny Duffy has struggled since returning from injury, and the Braves rank 11th in wRC+ against left-handers. The Braves should continue their winning ways tonight against the Royals.
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers Over 9.5
FD Sportsbook: -106
DK Sportsbook: -112
This is another place to find a solid over bet, even if we have two over-performing arms on the hill. Zach Davies and Tanner Roark may look like good arms with their ERA, but everything suggests results should have gone the other way. Both have an xFIP over 4.50, don’t miss many bats, and have relied upon some good fortune. Both these offenses can crush in this spot, especially Milwaukee. The over is 6-4 in the last ten meetings between these two teams. In the last six games in Miller Park between the two, the over has won all but once. Milwaukee has been crushing overs the last few weeks going 10-4. After 11 runs were scored last night, we should see something similar.