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Last article was on the 16th, which was an 0-3 night to bring us to 10-5 since the beginning of articles. Monday brings us 11 games for MLB and the Yankees are the only New York team playing tonight. There is some weather concerns in Washington, so that is a game I will avoid talking about today. Overall we have some solid pitching on the slate, but a lot of solid hitting weather that could make tonight’s games interesting. Let’s dive in.
New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins Over 11.5
FanDuel Sportsbook: +100
DraftKings Sportsbook: +100
11.5 overs outside of Coors are something I tend to stay away from, but plus money on the over here seems reasonable. Why? Well, you have two of the best offenses in the game squaring off against left-handed pitching. The Twins and Yankees are averaging over 5.5 runs per game this season, and the over has been favorable for both teams. On the road, the over is 30-12-1 for the Yankees. The over is 2-1 in the last three starts for C.C. Sabathia, and the same goes for Martin Perez. In the last ten meetings between these two teams, the over is 7-3. With how these offenses are playing and two blowup prone lefties on the hill, I will grab the over with some strong odds.
Baltimore Orioles @ Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5
FD Sportsbook: -124
DK Sportsbook: -122
We have another inter-league game, and the Diamondbacks come in as heavy favorites. I rather get a more optimal payout on such a heavy favorite with the spread. The Diamondbacks have been one of the best ATS, going 57-43 on the year. Arizona is 3-0 ATS in the last three starts that Robby Ray has made. He is in a good spot against an Orioles offense that ranks 24th in wRC+ against southpaws, and also own a 26% strikeout rate. Aaron Brooks is on the hill for the Orioles, who has over a six ERA on the road, and has allowed 12 home runs in 55.2 innings this season. Arizona has been great against inter-league teams, going 11-4 ATS and the Orioles are 3-7. The Orioles will lose the DH and head across the country after a surprise few wins against the Red Sox.
Miami Marlins @ Chicago White Sox Over 9.5
FD Sportsbook: -118
DK Sportsbook: -112
While these offenses do not scream big production, two below average right-handers in a good hitters park with the wind blowing out is appealing. Both bullpens are also in the bottom half in ERA. Ivan Nova has allowed ten earned runs over his last two starts, and has a 7.14 ERA at home this season. He has also allowed 22 home runs. Trevor Richards has allowed 11 baserunners in each of his last two starts, and joins Nova with an xFIP over 5.00. He has also allowed a home run in four straight starts, and has 12 walks in that span. Both arms do not have a lot of swing and miss potential, which bodes well for these offenses. There is not a lot of historical data that is reliable between these two teams. We have also seen the under be more profitable when analyzing these two offenses. However, tonight is a little different. With the arms on the hill combined with the overall hitting environment, I will take that both teams can combine for ten.