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Last night’s sports betting article for MLB was a 2-1 night, bringing me to 10-2 since the introduction of the articles. Aroldis Chapman’s blown save cost us the loss with the under, while the Braves won by two covering the spread and the RedSox-Jays was an easy over. We have 15 games on the slate tonight, including both New York teams.
New York Mets @ Minnesota Twins -1.5
DraftKings Sportsbook: +123
FanDuel Sportsbook: +118
The Mets travel to Minnesota tonight, which isn’t ideal for a team desperate to put some wins together. The Twins are decent favorites, but covering the spread presents us with a more optimal payout. I am high on the Twins tonight, and Steven Matz is a big reason why. Not only is Matz coming off a month of June where he allowed a 7.36 ERA, but he is on the road. Matz has a 2.54 ERA and has allowed just three home runs at Citi Field. Get him outside of NY, and he has a 7.07 ERA and has allowed 15 HR. He is also allowing a .338/.400/.577 slashing line to left-handed hitters this season. The Twins are also one of the best teams against left-handed hitters, sitting with a team .214 ISO and 126 wRC+. both are good for top five in the league. The Mets are 0-3 in Matz’s last three starts, while the Twins are 2-1 in Michael Pineda’s. Minnesota are 12-8 against southpaws, and are 25-18 ATS at home this season. New York is a dreadful road team going 19-32 leading up until tonight.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers -1.5
DK Sportsbook: +110
FD Sportsbook: +114
More inter-league play value here, as suddenly the Texas Rangers are a playoff contender. Lance Lynn is throwing some of the best baseball of his career, owning a 12-4 record and a 3.69 ERA. The Rangers are an excellent home team, going 31-19 overall, and 29-21 ATS at home. Alex Young is on the mount as a low strikeout arm who has a 4.75 xFIP through his first two starts. Flyballs are a concern, especially within this ballpark. Arizona doesn’t see Texas often, but for what it’s worth, they are 4-10 in their last 14 games. Lynn has thrown seven or more innings in five straight starts, and has not dipped below six innings since April 23rd. His numbers continue to be strong, and everything backs it up.
Seattle Mariners @ Oakland A’s Under 9.5
DK Sportsbook: -114
FD Sportsbook: -118
A 9.5 total looms between these two teams, as the Mariners continue to tank their season away. Oakland is in a hot stretch, and will take on lefty Marco Gonzales tonight. The A’s will roll out Daniel Mengden. Gonzales has held Oakland to six earned runs in three starts, and the over is 2-1 but more so because of the Mariners offense in those games. The under is 6-4 in the last ten overall meetings, and in the last eight games, the Oakland under is 6-2. It is a big spacious ballpark with two arms that can limit damage against these two offenses. We shouldn’t see much fire power, especially with Seattle’s offense. Oakland’s offense also drops from 5.6 runs per game on the road to 4.6 at home.