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The last sports betting article for MLB was a 3-0 night, bringing me to 8-1 since the introduction of the articles. The Astros-Rangers game was an easy over ten runs, while the Twins won SU as dogs, and the Mets beat the Marlins as small favorites. One of the New York teams is off, where the Yankees have a tough battle against the Rays. There is a Coors doubleheader on the slate, and sine weather to watch out for in St. Louis. Other than that, we have a fresh week of baseball to start us off.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox Over 10.5
FanDuel Sportsbook: -122
DraftKings Sportsbook: -110
The over is 4-1 between these two teams at Fenway Park this season, as we have seen finishes of 7, 15, 12, 13, and 12 runs. While I am a fan of what Trent Thornton could become, he has a lot of work to do. His ERA is up near five, and is coming off a start last time out against Boston allowing seven earned runs. His 30% groundball rate and 14 HR allowed are not a positive against this Boston offense that was crushing before the break. Rick Porcello on the other side has allowed nine earned runs in his two starts against Toronto this season, as his ERA sits north of five overall on the year. Over the last ten meetings between these two teams, the over is 7-2-1. The over has already been a favorite in Boston going 27-18 on the season, where the Blue Jays overs on the road are about even. With Boston’s battered bullpen from last night, and the combined pitching options, there should be plenty of runs.
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees Under 8.5
FD Sportsbook: +100
DK Sportsbook: +102
This pitching matchup may come off as an easy under call, but that actually isn’t the case. This will be a close one, but I do like the under here. Blake Snell was crushed in his last start against the Yankees in New York, but bounced back his next two starts. One of them was against the Yankees. Snell has shown potential to shut down this group, and his over 4.50 ERA is rather unlucky with a .351 BABIP and sub 70% LOB. It was nice to see James Paxton back pitching well in his last two starts. He is coming off a Tampa start holding them to two earned runs and 11 strikeouts. Paxton didn’t quite look right, but has put together a string of good starts. In the last ten meetings at Yankee Stadium between these two teams, the under is 8-2. At Yankee Stadium in general this season, the under is 29-19. The Rays on the road under sits at 28-18-1.
Atlanta Braves -1.5 @ Milwaukee Brewers
FD Sportsbook: +144
DK Sportsbook: +140
The Braves come in 7-3 in their last ten games, where the Brewers are 3-7 in their last ten games. Milwaukee’s pitching has really let them down, and mainly it has been in the bullpen. This is not great going up against an Atlanta offense that is absolutely cruising of late. In general this season, the Braves are a team that put the ball in play and average 5.4 runs per game. The Brewers are just 13-14 against left-handed pitching this season, and the Braves are over .500 on the road ATS. This game is essentially a pick’em, but let’s get some plus money for the Braves to run away with this one. Adrian Houser doesn’t match up well with this Braves team, and Max Fried has been a serviceable lefty this season. Houser has allowed 11 ER in his last three starts, and the Brewers are 1-2 in those starts.