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It has been a while due to the all-star break, but it was a 2-1 night from the last article to bring the articles to 5-1. The Astros were able to cover the spread against the Angels, while the Mets team total went over 4.5 runs. Colorado losing was the the only loss through the first two articles. Looking at the evening slate we have a solid selection of options to go with. The Mets are playing at 6:10 eastern, while the Yankees are the early days. Both New York teams face subpar divisional opponents. Let’s get into some sports betting action.
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins
FanDuel Sportsbook: NYM -136
DraftKings Sportsbook: NYM -136
The Mets are on the road as small favorites, with two solid pitchers on the hill. The Mets are 3-0 in the last three starts SU with Noah Syndergaard on the hill. New York is 2-1 in the last three starts against Miami, and Syndergaard has pitched a total of 23 innings allowing a total of five earned runs. Zac Gallen is on the hill, and is a talented young prospect for the Miami Marlins. He has been a little rocky of late, allowing six earned runs over his last 12 innings and three starts. It is a small sample size for the young righty, but lefties have the batted ball stats to generate plenty of power. His numbers against right-handers are also not as enticing looking in. With a high hard-contact rate and flyball rate, that is a concern. The advantage he has is pitching in a rather large ballpark. With Thor on the mound, I still like the Mets at a discount from what this line generally is.
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Indians
FD Sportsbook: +130
DK Sportsbook: +132
Minnesota has been one of the better underdog teams in baseball. On the season they are 20-13 as a dog, and are 29-18 on the road where they are tonight. Tough task against Trevor Bauer, and Jake Odorizzi will come in to counter the Indians offense. Cleveland is a middle of the road offense against right-handed pitching, and haven’t brought a ton of pop at times. Minnesota has the 6th best team wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and lead the league in team ISO.
Trevor Bauer has a 4.40 xFIP this season, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is down compared to last season. He is also allowing more home runs than 2018. At home this season, Bauer has a near five ERA and has over a four ERA in July through two starts. Bauer has been a bit more prone to the down start this season, and this is an offense it can certainly happen against. We get some decent odds on a stellar underdog team, and other sportsbooks have the Twins closer to +120.
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers Over 10
FD Sportsbook: –110
DK Sportsbook: -109
Both teams have averaged over five runs per game this season, and in their last ten meetings the Astros have averaged 6.2 runs while Texas averages 5.1. The over is 5-5 in the last ten meetings, but when played in Global Life Park, the average score is right around 9.5 total runs. While Mike Minor is having a strong season, he takes on the best team against left-handed pitching. The Astros have a team .366 wOBA, 134 wRC+, and .226 ISO off left-handed pitching this season. The Rangers are in the bottom third against lefties, but this offense comes to life when playing at home. They have a .210 ISO and .339 wOBA at home this season. Both teams are implied for five or nearly five runs on this toss up game.