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In celebration of the New York State Gaming Commission paving the way for legal sports betting coming to the NY over the next few months, I will be diving into a different (mostly) NY related sporting angle every day. Odds referenced from FanDuel Sportsbook.
To be frank there are not many professional sports going on at the moment. These are the weeks that many sports bettors try to make up to their families and friends for for a year of neglect. However, we know you aren’t the average sports bettor. You’ve taken time to kiss your babies all year, and have earned the right to enjoy a little action on a Friday night in July.
New York Yankees (57-31) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (34-57)
NYY: 8.2 Runs, -300, TOR: 3.1, +255
What better place to start for this column than with the 27x World Champion, New York Yankees. Not only the greatest NY baseball team, but one of the most valuable and successful franchises in North American sporting history.
The Yankees turn to starting pitcher Domingo German – whose 10-2 record has as much to do with solid pitching from the 26-year old as it does with the fantastic run support he’s gotten. The Yankees are 10-3 in German’s starts, scoring an average of 6.0 Runs in those games. German has been solid for his part, posting a 3.67 ERA and pitching 5+ innings in 12 of his 13 starts.
As a team for the season, the Yanks knock in 5.72 runs per game, tops in the Majors. I think there is every reason the Bronx Squad can maintain this level of production, if not improve as they reincorporate batters like Aaron Judge back into the day-to-day lineup.
Judge has looked fantastic since his mid-June return. In only 12 starts since returning, Judge has already jacked 4 Homers and knocked in 9 RBI. Although he went 0-8 with 5 strikeouts in the last two games before the break, I expect Judge to improve as the season progresses and his body gets more accumulated to playing every day.
Unfortunately, Giancarlo Stanton has had a setback and likely won’t be back for July.
Still Enough Firepower
Still with DJ LeMahieu (2B), Gleyber Torres (SS) and Gary Sanchez (C) are all having breakout offensive seasons from defensive-oriented positions. I expect the Yankees to mount the most fearsome lineup in baseball throughout the summer. Even if one or two of these players regresses to their career average, the committee will likely remain just as strong.
The Yankees lost their last two games before the All Streak break. They will be rested and focused to get back into the swing of things at home tonight against a down-and-out Blue Jays team. Considering Toronto trots out Aaron Sanchez, who has been dreadful all season, I would only look to play the home side. The Blue Jays have lost 12 out of Sanchez’s last 13 starts, including 9 in a row. During their 9 game losing the streak with Sanchez on the mound, the Blue Jays have been outscored by an average score of 8 to 3.5, coming within even two runs only 3 times.
The only question for me would be do I lay the lumber with -280 or try and get fancy with a -1.5 run line bet at -152.
For me, I’d be content winning a little less and go with the -280 money line. We can only expect a large favorite at home to have 8.5 innings to do their damage. If the Yankees have their lead cut to the 1 in the 9th inning, they will not need to return to the field. Remember they only care if they win – not if they cover. Also, if the game is tied after the 8th, it will be almost impossible for the home team to cover, considering the winning run crossing the plate ends the game if it is not a HR.
In general, with stars coming back and pitching getting stronger, I think the Yankees will exceed expectations going forward.
Angle: -280 might seem expensive but it’s the only play for the Yanks today.
New York Mets (40-50) vs. Miami Marlins (33-55)
NYM: 3.8 Runs, -105, MIA: 4.o, -105
Every hot shot iBanker trotting about Manhattan has a little brother in Queens driving a UPS truck. Not as prestigious or wealthy – more a family man – a bit of klutz – that UPS driver rests assured in the love of a small but passionate circle. Compared to the monolith of the NY Yankees, the NY Mets are that little brother, bandying about Queens.
Although they’ve been able to recruit some of the brightest young star pitchers, the rest of the squad doesn’t seem to have much a bite to it. They struggle when away from “the family”.
As bad as the Marlins have been in the always empty arena at home (15-29), the Mets have been just as atrocious away on the road (17-31). 3rd worst in the MLB for each.
If I were to play this game, I would only look toward the total. The Mets score 4.4 runs per game on the road – which isn’t horrendous, but not good either. The Marlins, however, have an astonishingly poor track record of scoring at home – notching less than 3.5 runs per contest.
Mets starter Jason Vargas has been solid all year, only giving up more than 3 runs in 3 of his 15 starts. Although I don’t trust the Mets Bullpen – I do think we see a lower scoring game for the early innings.
Angle: Under 4.5 (-118) for the 1st 5 Innings. This bet gives us exposure to the Mets biggest strength (starting pitching) and the Marlins biggest weakness (home offense).